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It ’ s unlikely there will be a marked improvement globally . World trade growth will continue to move along at a glacial pace , increasing by 1.7 %, but GDP growth will decelerate to 2.4 %, down slightly from 2.5 % this year . Insolvencies , on the other hand , will slow slightly , to 5 % growth , but remain at an uncomfortably high level . The IMF forecasts 3.4 % growth for the manufacturing sector in 2020 , up slightly on this year ’ s projection of 3 %, which was the lowest level since 2009 .
In the US , GDP growth will dip to 1.6 % next year from 2.4 % in 2019 ,
owing largely to the ongoing effects and uncertainty created by protectionist measures . While the phase one trade deal with China will provide a welcome respite , as the country ’ s election approaches , the situation is unlikely to improve , with many of the leading candidates either cool on free trade or with protectionist leanings . This will do little to fill exporters with confidence .
The economic outlook is even bleaker across the Eurozone , where growth is forecast at 1 % in 2020 . Of the UK ’ s biggest export partners , Germany is likely to fall into recession during the year –
JANUARY 2020